San Pedro de Sula (Honduras) – National economy catalyst in light of the actual political crisis

San Pedro is definitely the most important economic centre of Honduras. In San Pedro, dynamic town famous for its brilliant economy, few successful businessmen have reached an incredible powerful economic dimension. Such success has enable them to take part at the political debate as one of the most influential lobby.

Zelaya, the ousted President, at the beginning of his Presidential career was part of the “club” of industrials and businessmen loyal to the US influence in Central America. He received their blessing and political support. During the first part of his mandate he managed the country stimulating, reinvigorating and improving the existing trade relationship with the US. The US has a specific interest in the country which hosts the largest US military base in Central America (Palmerola). But something happened. A “new” destabilizing element took the upper hand and marked a dramatic shift in the management of the foreign affairs of Honduras. Chavez and his ALBA (left wing inspired organization of Bolivarian States) entangled the Honduran political arena intoxicating first the President Zelaya who dramatically changed his set of political priorities, goals and supporters. This element triggered the famous event that forced Zelaya to leave the country.
The political dynamics behind the scenes are not the main argument of this blog post. Nevertheless it is worth reminding the importance of San Pedro de Sula as main economic site in Honduras, house of lobbyists and ghost decision makers. Which role will be played by San Pedro economic elites before and during next Presidential election remain to be seen.
I visited San Pedro de Sula in April as part of the country Security Risk Assessment, before the political crisis took place. Here some findings regarding the level of criminality, the threats and the instability factors in the San Pedro urban area and in its region.

GENERAL SECURITY SITUATION

Cortes Department (San Pedro surroundings)
General Situation - Crime
The most potentially dangerous sites in terms of presence of criminality are located in the Sulasono Valley. Only few areas can be considered moderately dangerous: Omoa, San Antonio, Santa Cruz Yohoa and San Francisco.
The most frequent criminal acts are kidnappings, express kidnappings (the victim is released in few hours after he/she withdraw money from ATM machine), extortion, assaults and violence connected with narco traffic.
There are areas too dangerous to adventure through in the region, while it is possible/recommendable visit other municipalities only if in company of somebody known in the community or local officials.
Ironically any police escort could dramatically endanger the presence of the visitor.
The risk posed by crime in this area is assessed as high.

Organized Crime – Cortes
The crime rate is very high in this area.
People generally do not report criminal acts for two reasons: fear of retaliations from criminals and lack of trust in the law enforcement systems, both police and justice. Besides corrupted police could inform criminal about a report and trigger retaliation.
The risk posed by crime in this area is assessed as high.

Urban Department of San Pedro Sula
General Situation – Crime
Usually two different kind of criminal aspects are present here: crime due to social frictions and delinquency (ordinary and common).
Both are fueled by the media which emphasize the culture of fear among people. This situation stimulates the lack of confidence in the police as institution and creates a subculture of isolation (one is alone against crime). This phenomenon motivates people not to report incidents and crime related events.
Drug couriers move freely in the urban departments since San Pedro is part of the large drug corridor from Colombia to the Mexican/US border. Part of the drug shipments are used locally to pay salaries to those supporting their logistic operation.
The risk posed by crime in this area is assessed as high.

Organized crime – San Pedro Sula City
Large international organized groups of criminals are operating in town. The leaders are Colombian and Mexican. They are in charge of the transportation across Honduras of large quantity of drug. These groups use local gangs “Maras” to support and defend their activities. Several killers are recruited by drug cartels.
The Maras are used to distract police from other areas where the drug is transported.
Gangs indeed organize skirmishes or crime incidents in order to gather the police out of a different area where narco traficants are managing their operations.
The police and the judiciary system are very corrupted. The impunity reaches very high levels.
Money laundering is a widespread phenomenon as well. The great majority of the victims of homicides are connected with some criminal activities or groups. The price to execute somebody can be as low as $50.
Some peripheral areas of San Pedro represent an attraction for those populations living in other poorer regions. Those villages are the most perilous.
The risk posed by crime in this area is assessed as high.

Threat mitigations measures:
Best time frame to conduct field operation between 6:00 AM and 6:00 PM.
The Soaso area is considered at high crime risk. Nevertheless the escort of police is not recommended since can be clearly identified.
It has been reported that people has been killed in attempt to steel their cellular phone. For this reason the cellular is used only in not visible areas.
Finally, the good and appropriate personal behavioral conduct of the monitor is a further element to consider within the general mitigation measures.

Accidental Shooting:
The risk to be involved in an accidental shooting is low.

Medical Emergency:
In San Pedro are located several good medical facilities. In town are available ambulances, clinics and health centers providing basic services.
The fire fighters have an ambulance too.
The risk of not receiving adequate medical cares is assessed as low.

Fire
The risk of injury from fire is assessed as low.

Road Travel
The conditions of the roads in town are very good. The great majority of the urban roads are paved. The traffic can be chaotic. The risk of being involved in a car incident is assessed as low.

Recommendation:
Drivers should attend a 4x4 wheel drive course. Secondly, the defense/offense driving courses should be offered to drivers as advanced courses after completion of the 4x4.
Picture on top courtesy Wiki.



Author visiting a school in the surroundings of San Pedro. Field offices were located within School complex, offered by Ministry of Education.

Guatemala - Chapter 2. Overall threat, organized crime and natural disasters.

With this brief post I conclude my “Guatemala” security considerations. In the previous one I described how impunity and regular criminality affect dramatically security in the country. Here are some hints about the overall threats to the humanitarian organization I was in charge of, the organized crime and natural disasters (hurricanes and volcanoes).

The Threat:
There are currently no known specified threats against humanitarian staff and interests in Guatemala other than the general threats prevalent to all organizations and civilians in the country.
Crimes of opportunity such as car theft, abduction and muggings are ever present. In essence, the high level of criminality and little or no authority and no recourse to Police action in the rural areas is a serious threat to all visitors to, and agencies. As mentioned almost in all towns (mainly in the centers) the legality and police enforcement have not been fully restored.

Terrorist Action:
Currently there are no registered incidents of IED or VBED (Vehicle Borne Explosive Device) in Guatemala. However, the authorities have expressed concern and state that they have in the past monitored Muslim extremists travelling trough Guatemala. There are no officially identified terrorist groups by the Guatemalan Government, even though there are constant confrontation with groups such as the EXPAC (ex paramilitaries), which have in the past made their dissatisfaction known through violent means. Nonetheless the security system on site is constantly in touch with local authorities and the international community to ensure that there is an early warning system in place should the terrorist threat increase. However, the terrorist threat can be assessed as low in Guatemala.

Demonstration / political:
There is no obvious potential for politically motivated violence. The activities of the recent born International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG), mentioned in my previous article, backed by UN could increase the risk that international organizations could be targeted by organized crime. So far, the current threat of violent demonstration is assessed as low.

Road Accident:
Road travel in Guatemala is hazardous. Road conditions outside of town range from are generally good. The risk of a fatal accident appears to be high. The traffic is heavy in Guatemala City and the drivers have almost no discipline and respect of road regulations. Defensive driving techniques are a must for all drivers. The hazard presented by road travel is assessed as high.

Organized Criminal Activity:
This is the area of major concern in Guatemala. The Maras (youth gangs – see post dated August 16th) are of particular concern, since they are both involved with major drug operations, people smuggling syndicates and regional Mara turf wars. Additionally, they routinely control zones throughout the Capital, running extortion rackets, which include extensive involvement in the countries public transit system. As a result, it is highly recommended not to ride public buses or enter certain zones of Guatemala City and use only approved taxi companies suitable for official or personal travel. Lastly, organized crime groups have also been linked to kidnappings and “express kidnapping”, which take place frequently in Guatemala. Risk level is high.

Natural disasters/Force Majeur:
Hurricanes present a constant threat to Guatemala during the rainy season which has seen in 2005 (Hurricane Stan) approximately 2000 death. Weak government response, limited resources and a limited infrastructure all aggravate this problem. Guatemala is a geologically active country and earthquakes are also a constant concern, as well as flooding and regular power outages throughout the country. Guatemala has also 22 volcanoes, 4 of which are considered active. Volcanic activity, such as that of Fuego Volcano near Antigua in January 2003, and again in January 2006, has on occasion forced evacuations of nearby villages; the January-February 2000 activity of Pacaya Volcano near Guatemala City also briefly closed Guatemala City's international airport. The threat posed by the effects of an earthquake is assessed as high.
Map of Major Volcanoes in Guatemala. Courtesy: intute.ac.uk

OBSERVATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
· Crime is the biggest single threat to International Organizations in Guatemala. Sensible precautions can drastically reduce the probability of personnel becoming victims. Those most at risk are expatriates especially those recently arrived in country. Road traffic accidents are a serious problem. Sound vehicle maintenance and good driving practices will reduce the probability of accidents.
· Staff working in Guatemala City should keep the lowest profile possible while moving from/to the Capital. In this regard, it is recommendable to use magnetic logos for cars only for official missions or when it is strictly necessary in the field. This would reduce the visibility of the operators and mission and mitigate the risk.
Picture on top: Guatemalan Maras members arrested by special police - Courtesy: Noorlarnet.uoi.no