Ecuador. Beautiful country facing different degrees of insecurity.

I visited Quito, Ecuador between March and April 2009 during a Security Risk Assessment mission. I had to evaluate type and dimension of threats, the vulnerabilities of the Organization I was working for (weaknesses and strengths) and finally assess their programme characteristics and priorities. In this post I am going to describe briefly the Country form a different point of view focusing on levels of security applied to different regions. In a second post I will treat the details of threats posed by common crime, organized crime, terrorism, natural disasters, road conditions and casevac/medevac. Obviously my posts, as discussed at the very beginning of my blog, do not contain confidential information of any kind and reflect my own view of the security situation in the country.
They want to present a different approach to countries which focuses mainly on security and safety.
Ecuador is the smallest of the Andean countries. It has the highest average population density in South America and the highest percentage of Native Americans. It is one of the two South American countries (with Chile) that have no border with Brazil. As its name indicates, Ecuador extends over both sides of the equator line. It is bordered in the North by Colombia (700 km) and in the East and South by Peru (1420 km border), in the West by the Pacific Ocean (2,237 km of coastline.)
Being on the equator gives the country its peculiar weather conditions, it also allows it to have 12 hour day year round.
Ecuador has three main geographic regions, plus an insular region in the Pacific Ocean, which is the first element of heterogeneity:
La Costa, or the coast, comprises the low-lying land in the western part of the country, including the Pacific coastline.
La Sierra ("the highlands") is the high-altitude double belt running north-south along the center of the country. Between the double range of the Andes, there is a high altitude (2000-3000 meters) basin, which includes main old Ecuadorean cities (from north to south: Tulcán, Ibarra, Quito, Latacunga, Ambato, Riobamba, Cuenca, Loja.
La Amazonía, also known as El Oriente ("the east"), comprises the Amazon rainforest areas in the eastern part of the country, accounting for just under half of the country's total surface area, though populated by less than 5% of the population.
The Región Insular is the region comprising the Galápagos Islands, also on the Ecuador line, some 1,000 kilometers west of the mainland in the Pacific Ocean.

Security Phase/Security Level (at time of my visit):
In Ecuador four different security phases have been activated in different areas of the country. I am going to use a system based on letters, from A (lower level) up to F (higher level of insecurity). The level system used (created by me) here has the only purpose of showing the different degrees of security within the different regions of the country and is described as follow:

Northern Border with Colombia:

Level D:
1. Following towns belonging to Province of Sucumbíos in the Northern Border with Colombia are under level D: Palma Roja, Santa Elena, Puerto Rodríguez, Santa Rosa, General Farfán, Dureno y Pacayacú.
2. Following towns belonging to district of San Lorenzo (Province of Esmeraldas) in the Northern Border with Colombia are under phase 3: Palma Real, Ancón, Mataje, Tambillo y Pampanga.
3. All the rivers in the Northern Border with Colombia are also under level D.

Level C:
Province of Sucumbíos, with the exception of the towns mentioned in point 1, above, which are under Level D.

Level B:
1. The Province of Carchi, with the exception of the rivers in the Northern Border, is under level B.
2. City of Esmeraldas and district of Eloy Alfaro in the province of Esmeraldas are also under level B.
Volcanic activity of Tungurahua:
Province of Tungurahua:
1. The towns of Pondoa and Juive Grande, belonging to the district of Baños are under level B.

2. The towns of Cusúa and Chacanco, belonging to the district of Pelileo are also under level B.

Province of Chimborazo:
1. The towns of Bilbao, Paligtagua, Yuibug, Clocontus, belonging to the district of Penipe are under level B.
2. The towns of Cahuají, Cuso, Chazo and La Palestina, belonging to the district of Guano are also under level B.
When visiting these areas, it is recommended to get fresh informations about the actual security situation.
Level A:
The rest of the country including the capital Quito.

SECURITY SITUATION – THREAT ANALYSIS
Safety and Security – overview:
With the signing of the Peace Agreements with Peru in 1998, Ecuador overcame one of the biggest obstacles in the formulation and execution of its foreign policy since its birth as an independent Republic.
After a Colombian forces attack against an illegal guerilla camp on the Ecuadorean side of the common border, Quito severed diplomatic relations with Bogota. The tension is a political one between the two governments, since populations on both sides of the border are mixed and maintain a long tradition of brotherhood, even against their respective capitals (especially for their complicity in a large range of smuggling activities.) Nevertheless, the Ecuadorean stance is to fight against all raid or attack in its territory, either from legal or illegal forces. For that purpose, the government is reinforcing (at high cost) its military and police presence in the northern area, affecting illegal activities (of the majority of the population), but trying also to bring development with the “Plan Ecuador”, designed for peace and social and economic growth, in contrast with “Plan Colombia” (designed against illegal groups and activities.)
Ten years after establishing peace in the south, the concern is now in the north.
The diplomatic relation with Colombia was broken two days after the Colombian military attack on a guerilla camp on March 1st, 2008 in Ecuador, in which the second most important FARC commander was killed.
That event has even more urged a new Ecuadorian defense policy which included a reinforcement of the northern border area (around 8,000 soldiers) and an effort to modernize equipments.
As mentioned, Ecuador faces several security challenges listed as follow, in decreasing order:
road traffic accidents, criminality, street robbery, street assault, house break-in, office break-in, office occupation, vehicle break-in, earthquake, volcanic activity, floods, landslides, domestic violence, rape, fraud, counterfeit money, car theft, street or road blockade, kidnapping, hostage taking.

Riot Ecuadorean Police escorting a public gathering in the centre of Quito.

Author during the SRA in Ecuador.

Ayacucho - Peru. Travelling in harsh terrain conditions

The town of Ayacucho is located in the south-central Andes of the country.
It lies in quiet and calm area since Shining Path terrorist movement based once here had been defeated by Governamental forces in the eighties. In fact, Ayacucho was one of the most important strongholds of Shining Path in the past. The threat of a potential terrorist activity is low but precautions must be taken during travel missions. Traveling by road especially at night is dangerous. The areas potentially at risk are the Provinces of La Mar and Huanta. Overland travel from Ayacucho to San Francisco is not recommended.
The area has experienced some assaults by local criminal gangs of youngsters who usually prefer to operate during night time or early in the morning. The methodology used to attack buses and cars is well known: one of the members of the gang lies down in the street pretending that he had an accident so that the bus stops and get assaulted. In the meantime the local criminals rob the passengers of their belongings. The level of threat related to common criminality in the Ayacucho surroundings, is medium.
The office I visited in town during my RSA is located in an area called Huamanga which enjoys a low level of criminality.
The threat posed by earthquakes and water floods is very low in this area.
The local roads connecting Ayacucho and the neighboring rural communities, which are regularly used by local populations, are not paved and very dangerous. There are no side road protections and roads are often narrow. Several bends make the driving even more challenging. If a vehicle is coming the other way, our vehicle must stop trying to maneuver using the little road side space if present.

Ayachucho surroundings: local community involved in an UN funded agricoltural project (food for work)


In the rural areas the road conditions are even poorer than in town. Most of the local roads are not paved and in some instances operations are cancelled if weather conditions render part of the routes too dangerous for travel. There is high risk of car accidents though the number of cars circulating is scarce. The accident could be generated by landslides, or softness of terrain, as well as an impact with another car. If a mechanic problem takes place, (my recommendation) the driver must stay with the car while the passenger looks for help. The environment can be dangerous due to harsh natural conditions of the terrain and the lack of radio coverage in the Ayacucho Region. There is a high risk to be assaulted during night hours. There is no cellular network up in the mountains as well so that the only communication means is the Sat phone. The risk of an accident by road travel is assessed as high.



Author while travelling between Ayacucho and Huancavelica at around 4700 mt. above sea level, sorrounded by glaciers.

PERU: General security situation, considerations from my Risk Security Assessment

I visited Peru in February and March 2007 while conducting a Risk Security Assessment mission. The materials used to prepare this blog post have been updated and carefully reviewed in order to provide an idea about the actual security context in Peru.

SITUATION:

Peru is suffering from an increase in crime from simple muggings through to violent kidnapping; mostly confined to urban areas and within the poorer districts during the day but widespread after dark. The current government is slowly becoming increasingly popular, despite of the economic situation declining and local crime rising. Regarding the terrorism groups who used to frighten Peru, Shining Path and Tupac Amaru, both have been almost successfully fought in the Eighties and right now some old militants are trying to reorganize themselves. Those trends are channeling themselves towards the big drug traffic ants as the military-like expertise they can offer is very useful to protect illegal cocaine laboratories and the transportation of the final product. It has to be borne in mind that Peru is the second largest coca producer in South America, after Colombia. Urban driving conditions are appalling and at present they are assessed of being probably the greatest threat to staff in Peru. One of the most common security challenges to personal security is related to the use of taxis. There are almost no road regulations and police is literally not “visible” on the streets. Often illegal taxi drivers put on their car a Taxi sign. It has been reported that a massive quantity of false circulation documents as well as driving permits are fake and easy to obtain, since there is a flourishing market for false documents in Lima.
Furthermore, driving schools often “sell” driving license without performing any practical exams or oral/written tests.
Kidnapping can be considered a high risk factor in Peru, above all for foreigners travelling in Peru.
Often the victim is forced to withdraw money from ATM machines, usually before and after midnight so that the cash amount is double as it refers to two days. The phenomenon is popularly called Millionaire Walking (Paseo Milionario). It is recommended to use secure taxi company before arriving in country. Local staff is required to attend to a specialized security awareness training in addition to the basic security training. This is primarily due to deal with the threat of kidnapping and being involved in a car accident in very remote areas with no communication and close medical facilities.

SECURITY SITUATION - THREAT ANALYSIS
President Alan Garcia is at his second mandate as president of Peru. People are slowly but steadily increasing their support of his administration since he is giving clear signs that he wants to do something concrete to help the poor conditions of his country. For example, he is the author of a law which will ask the major mine companies to pay a “volunteer contribute” (several million of dollars) to organizations involved in fighting hunger in Peru since the State program organizations waist up to 40% of the available resources. If those political actions will help Peru to improve or if this will be a barely cosmetic political move it is not clear.
There are still concerns over renewed insurgency activity from the Shining Path (SL) guerrilla group having them join the drug traffickers with their support in security.

Peru is the second largest producer of cocaine in South America after Colombia. Here coca plantations are not illegal, but coca farmers must accept to sell part of the production to a State owned company. The quantity to be sold is minimal so that the great majority of it is then illegally purchased by drug dealers. The system does not help the fight against drug smugglers as the cultivations are not illegal and it is very difficult to define the line between legality and illegality.
The areas of biggest concern are, however, the common criminality and road accidents. Common criminality is widespread in the country with a peak level in the periphery of Lima. Law enforcement agents are not visible, and according to the official data, are not doing enough to fight this phenomenon. The second area of concern is related to car traffic and accidents. As said, there is a high risk of becoming a victim of a car accident, since there is little order and respect of road regulations. In Peru public transportation managed by government or local authorities does not exist, but it has been left to private companies and individuals. There is little control on authorizations and documents so that virtually anybody who owns a car or a minibus can be a taxi or public bus driver. Furthermore, a long time passes between vehicle technical inspections increasing the risk of mechanical breakdowns and incidents due to the lack of maintenance. The parliament has recently approved a law which forbids the importation of used cars older than five years. The high taxes to buy a new vehicle (50% of the price) have created a stagnant situation which do not facilitate the replacement of older models.

Author posing with a local community involved in an agriculture based project in the Handahuaylas area.

Peru has a working relationship with Brazil, although this has been strained by US aid packages to Lima. However, Peru is a member of MERCOSOR trade region, which is dominated by Brazil, bringing the countries closer together. Bolivia is a close partner, largely due to mutual concerns over Chile. Whilst Peru and Chile have been historic rivals, the current relationship is reasonably amicable, although the dispute over maritime borders is still alive. The two countries are working together on border security and anti-terrorist operations. Border disputes with Ecuador remain a source of tension, although outright combat seems unlikely.

The once special relationship with Japan has been strained, following the flight of Garcia predecessor, Alberto Fujimori, to Japan in 2000 and the associated international pressure on Japan to extradite him for murder. Fujimori undergone a trial, has been accused of several imputations and is now in prison. His daughter Keiko, actual Peruvian politician, is planning to run for President of Peru in 2011. How this element could change the feeling of the Peruvians about a possible return of the former President remains to be seen.
Peru’s relationship with the US has had a rocky past but is now close, particularly with large US funding for narcotics and security operations. However, many in Peru are critical of the US for failing to address fundamental trade and social problems within the country through their funding packages. There appears to be some credible information that international terrorists are present in the country but it is not known to which organization they belong; their activities seem to be linked with drugs, financing and false documentation.
The wave of internal terrorism, which Peru suffered in the 1980s and 1990s, has largely passed, but it has not completely disappeared. Remnants of the Shining Path (SP) movement (estimated at around 300 fighters and an unknown number of political activists) are still active in the Apurimac, Ene and Lower Huallaga Valleys. SP was responsible for the US embassy bombing in 2002. A group of terrorists also abducted gas pipeline workers near Toccate in the Ayacucho Department on 9th June 2003. In addition, the Garcia government, despite of his increasing popularity, remains disliked on basic reforms, which gives the potential for protests and strikes if the economic and social situation worsens. There have been recent protests by coca farmers over crop eradication by US-funded anti-narcotics operations and there are signs that the farmers are becoming increasingly militant in their opposition to the government’s support for US actions. In fact the project of restructuring coca plantations with other cultivations has given low results in terms of production and prices. The United Nations are also seen as a threat by the coca farmers and the SP who have an interest in coca production being the major security provider.

Off road trip on the Andean Mountains to Huancavelica.

PUERTO LEMPIRA – THE MOST FASHINATING AND CHALLENGING FIELD LOCATION IN HONDURAS

Navigating the waterways around the Puerto Lempira swampland (Honduras).

I am finally able to get back on track updating my Security Risk Assessment blog. I have been very busy lately with several professional projects and evaluations. I hope I will be able to regularly inform you through the columns of my blog about international challenges and security threats.
I visited Puerto Lempira – Honduras during my SRA in April 2009. Puerto Lempira is a very peculiar city due to its geographical and orographical conditions. It’s located in the Mosquitia Region, in the south of the country, bordering Nicaragua. A large part of this region includes swampland-like area featuring several rivers, creeks, natural canals and lakes. The large lagoon facing Puerto Lempira town represents the main water access both to open sea and internal canals.
To carry out its mission the humanitarian international organization I was working for had at its disposal two light boats and two cars. Two local indigenous communities, Uanpusirte and Auas, receive from the organization via boat food and of combustible to help with expensive navigation costs. The great majority of the assisted communities are located along water ways, few in the inner land. The weather conditions are generally good but the rainy season (between July and December). The area is normally very affected during this period by tropical storms and sporadically by hurricanes. The local autochthon ethnic group is Miskito and the most spoken language is Miskito even if the official one is Spanish. Most of the populations understand Spanish. The area is generally calm and few are the crime related episodes reported. The communities are watching their neighborhoods. During the night hours some cases of common crime events were recently reported (little robberies mainly).

Organized criminal activities:
Organized crime is present and its core business is drug trafficking. Several air, sea and land routes cross this region. Traffickers are almost invisible though everybody seems to perceive their presence.
The local communities are involved in the drug business only when a go-fast boat or a tourism private airplane loaded with cocaine coming from Colombia, crashes or faces direct threat by law enforcement agencies and their drug charge is left on the ground. Local populations rapidly take advantage of the situation catching as much content as possible. Police often remains with empty hands. Only boats or the aircrafts are recovered.
Narco traffickers lately buy at “fair” price the drug from the communities.
The general perception is that this is a great opportunity to those poor communities almost disconnected from the rest of the world.
Our local staff have never felt directly threaten from such trafficking. Our boats are clearly marked.
The threat in the Gracias a Dios region posed by organized crime can be assessed as low/medium.

Eating coconuts before the navigation mission on the Caribbean shores

Threat mitigations measures
The level of acceptance of the organization within the local populations is high. Indeed the clearly marked official vehicles and boats help to be recognized. The staff in charge of the Puerto Lempira office are well known and respected.
Contracted motorists conduct our boats along the water ways, canals, lagoon, rivers and open sea. They are very skilled and their knowledge of the area is depth. Staff travel, if possible, always with a representative of the government counterpart of the Ministry of Education who is well known as well. It is mandatory to obtain a navigation permit from the Port Authority prior every trip by boat. The permit includes names of those using the boat, the itinerary and other relevant details. Staff usually call our point of contact in the municipality they are about to visit in order to get fresh security information.
Best time frame to conduct field operation between 6:00 AM and 6:00 PM.
Finally, the good and appropriate personal behavioral conduct of the staff is a further element to consider within the general mitigation measures.

Demonstration / political:
At present, there is no obvious potential for politically motivated violence.
The local departmental branch of Ministry of Education has been recently blocked by protesters, usually teachers. The protests are not violent and usually last one day. The current threat of violent demonstration is assessed as low.

Accidental Shooting:
The risk to be involved in an accidental shooting is low.

Medical Emergency:
In Puerto Lempira is active a public hospital. The two clinics present in the region are located in Gracias a Dios and Dos Leones. Every single municipality has a health centre in which basic emergencies can be treated. Cuban doctors are working in these centers along with Honduran doctors according with an agreement between the governments of Honduras and Cuba.
Only one ambulance is available at Puerto Lempira which often is not operative. Those who need emergency medical care are transported to hospitals with private vehicles or boats. Local populations are very collaborative when a medical emergency occurs. Our staff as well has often helped to transport people to hospital putting at disposal the boat as only available transportation means in the area. In this case the procedure envisages that the passenger signs a discharge of responsibility form allowing staff to transport him/her by official boat/vehicle.
Poisoning snakes are infesting the area and everybody here can be exposed to the risk of being bite.
The risk for staff to not receive adequate medical assistance is high because of the lack of basic medical service in the region, the harsh geographic condition.
Fire
The risk of injury from fire is assessed as low.

Road Travel
As mentioned above, the most used transportation means are the boats. Nevertheless some communities are assisted visited by car since they are located in the mainland (very harsh swampland-like environment).
There are absolutely no paved roads and their maintenance is virtually inexistent. In some cases there are no roads at all and staff drive in the wildness to reach the inner communities. Driving during the rainy season can be very difficult/harmful. The organization’s cars are equipped with special “Tractor” high grip tires.
The hazard posed by road condition is assessed as high.

Boats:
Boats are stored along the lagoon shore at motorist location.
Boats, to be fully compliant must have the following features:
Ø Fire extinguishers
Ø Second emergency engine on board
Ø Bengala signaling rockets
Ø First aid kit
Ø Radio systems including sat phones
Ø Life vests suitable for adults and children.
Ø GPS system

Emergency food transported by an Honduran military helicopter after hurrican strike.

Food transported via boat to the indigenous communities within the lagoon.

San Pedro de Sula (Honduras) – National economy catalyst in light of the actual political crisis

San Pedro is definitely the most important economic centre of Honduras. In San Pedro, dynamic town famous for its brilliant economy, few successful businessmen have reached an incredible powerful economic dimension. Such success has enable them to take part at the political debate as one of the most influential lobby.

Zelaya, the ousted President, at the beginning of his Presidential career was part of the “club” of industrials and businessmen loyal to the US influence in Central America. He received their blessing and political support. During the first part of his mandate he managed the country stimulating, reinvigorating and improving the existing trade relationship with the US. The US has a specific interest in the country which hosts the largest US military base in Central America (Palmerola). But something happened. A “new” destabilizing element took the upper hand and marked a dramatic shift in the management of the foreign affairs of Honduras. Chavez and his ALBA (left wing inspired organization of Bolivarian States) entangled the Honduran political arena intoxicating first the President Zelaya who dramatically changed his set of political priorities, goals and supporters. This element triggered the famous event that forced Zelaya to leave the country.
The political dynamics behind the scenes are not the main argument of this blog post. Nevertheless it is worth reminding the importance of San Pedro de Sula as main economic site in Honduras, house of lobbyists and ghost decision makers. Which role will be played by San Pedro economic elites before and during next Presidential election remain to be seen.
I visited San Pedro de Sula in April as part of the country Security Risk Assessment, before the political crisis took place. Here some findings regarding the level of criminality, the threats and the instability factors in the San Pedro urban area and in its region.

GENERAL SECURITY SITUATION

Cortes Department (San Pedro surroundings)
General Situation - Crime
The most potentially dangerous sites in terms of presence of criminality are located in the Sulasono Valley. Only few areas can be considered moderately dangerous: Omoa, San Antonio, Santa Cruz Yohoa and San Francisco.
The most frequent criminal acts are kidnappings, express kidnappings (the victim is released in few hours after he/she withdraw money from ATM machine), extortion, assaults and violence connected with narco traffic.
There are areas too dangerous to adventure through in the region, while it is possible/recommendable visit other municipalities only if in company of somebody known in the community or local officials.
Ironically any police escort could dramatically endanger the presence of the visitor.
The risk posed by crime in this area is assessed as high.

Organized Crime – Cortes
The crime rate is very high in this area.
People generally do not report criminal acts for two reasons: fear of retaliations from criminals and lack of trust in the law enforcement systems, both police and justice. Besides corrupted police could inform criminal about a report and trigger retaliation.
The risk posed by crime in this area is assessed as high.

Urban Department of San Pedro Sula
General Situation – Crime
Usually two different kind of criminal aspects are present here: crime due to social frictions and delinquency (ordinary and common).
Both are fueled by the media which emphasize the culture of fear among people. This situation stimulates the lack of confidence in the police as institution and creates a subculture of isolation (one is alone against crime). This phenomenon motivates people not to report incidents and crime related events.
Drug couriers move freely in the urban departments since San Pedro is part of the large drug corridor from Colombia to the Mexican/US border. Part of the drug shipments are used locally to pay salaries to those supporting their logistic operation.
The risk posed by crime in this area is assessed as high.

Organized crime – San Pedro Sula City
Large international organized groups of criminals are operating in town. The leaders are Colombian and Mexican. They are in charge of the transportation across Honduras of large quantity of drug. These groups use local gangs “Maras” to support and defend their activities. Several killers are recruited by drug cartels.
The Maras are used to distract police from other areas where the drug is transported.
Gangs indeed organize skirmishes or crime incidents in order to gather the police out of a different area where narco traficants are managing their operations.
The police and the judiciary system are very corrupted. The impunity reaches very high levels.
Money laundering is a widespread phenomenon as well. The great majority of the victims of homicides are connected with some criminal activities or groups. The price to execute somebody can be as low as $50.
Some peripheral areas of San Pedro represent an attraction for those populations living in other poorer regions. Those villages are the most perilous.
The risk posed by crime in this area is assessed as high.

Threat mitigations measures:
Best time frame to conduct field operation between 6:00 AM and 6:00 PM.
The Soaso area is considered at high crime risk. Nevertheless the escort of police is not recommended since can be clearly identified.
It has been reported that people has been killed in attempt to steel their cellular phone. For this reason the cellular is used only in not visible areas.
Finally, the good and appropriate personal behavioral conduct of the monitor is a further element to consider within the general mitigation measures.

Accidental Shooting:
The risk to be involved in an accidental shooting is low.

Medical Emergency:
In San Pedro are located several good medical facilities. In town are available ambulances, clinics and health centers providing basic services.
The fire fighters have an ambulance too.
The risk of not receiving adequate medical cares is assessed as low.

Fire
The risk of injury from fire is assessed as low.

Road Travel
The conditions of the roads in town are very good. The great majority of the urban roads are paved. The traffic can be chaotic. The risk of being involved in a car incident is assessed as low.

Recommendation:
Drivers should attend a 4x4 wheel drive course. Secondly, the defense/offense driving courses should be offered to drivers as advanced courses after completion of the 4x4.
Picture on top courtesy Wiki.



Author visiting a school in the surroundings of San Pedro. Field offices were located within School complex, offered by Ministry of Education.

Honduras, threat analysis just before the change of political leadership

I visited Honduras in March 2009, just before the change of political leadership in the country. New elections are expected in November. The U.S. won’t recognize a scheduled November election in Honduras without a resolution to the political crisis that began with a coup that ousted President Manuel Zelaya in June. On Sept. 27, the de facto government led by interim President Roberto Micheletti banned protests and suspended other civil rights for 45 days and denied entry to an Organization of American States delegation seeking to negotiate an end to the three-month standoff in the Central American nation.
The aim of this post is not to focus on the actual political impasse of the country but to provide a threat analysis prepared just before the crisis. I will closely follow the development of the situation from the pages of this blog providing elements and details regarding possible future new political scenarios and balance of power.

Safety and Security – overview:
The main concern remains the general crime situation which is endemic. Almost all subjects interviewed during this assessment have been involved in or has assisted to common crime actions (robberies, assaults, etc).

Crime:
The threat from common criminal elements is considered HIGH in certain areas; violent crime is a serious and growing problem, especially in zones of Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula, and to a less degree throughout the country. Pickpockets and purse -snatchers are prevalent in major cities, especially in parts of Comayagüela and the central market surroundings of Tegucigalpa. Movements after dark should be avoided. Highway, road and street robberies, carjacking and assault of pedestrians by armed thieves are still high. Roadblocks and demonstrations on the main highways have decreased. With a total of 3,855 murders in 2007 and a population of approximately 7.3 million people, Honduras has one of the world’s highest per capita murder rates. Two-man teams on medium-size motorcycles often target pedestrians for robbery. There have also been reports of armed robbers traveling in private cars targeting pedestrians on isolated streets.

Organized crime:
There are criminal organizations which are mainly devoted to the drug smuggling/transportation from the southern bordering country Nicaragua to El Salvador and Guatemala, towards the Mexican/US border. In the La Mosquitia area and along the Caribbean coast their activities are carried out with little obstacle posed by law enforcement agencies. Recently has been approved a law which considers the use of soldiers in support of police force. Still the general perception is that the Government has not done enough to reduce criminality and organized crime activities. Results of these activities are homicides, violent actions and revenges among criminal groups to control the drug traffic.
The “Maras” phenomenon, juvenile criminal gangs, is present and affecting peripheral locations. Often it is involved in the protection of drug trafficking routes along the Atlantic coast and in certain internal area.
The direct threat posed from the above described actions can be considered high.

Police – Security Forces:
The Honduran government conducts occasional joint police/military patrols in major cities in an effort to reduce crime. Problems with the judicial process include corruption and an acute shortage of trained personnel, equipment, staff, and financial resources. The Honduran law enforcement authorities' ability to prevent, respond to, and investigate criminal incidents and prosecute criminals remains limited. The Government of Honduras has a very limited presence in Northern Olancho, Colon and Gracias a Dios Departments, which are well known for lumber and narcotics smuggling and violence. While the support of the police to eventually escort official vehicles in at-risk areas is relatively easy to get in the field locations, in Tegucigalpa, due to a scarcity of policemen, it is difficult to obtain.

Natural Disaster:
The most common natural threat to Honduras is posed by frequent but slight earthquakes, mainly in the Southern and Central regions of the country. Hurricanes as well can be dangerous and harmful, producing flooding along the Caribbean coast, according with the season. The towns of Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula are particularly weak to flooding due to the lack of properly build infrastructure and a proper urban housing plan. Peripheral towns and villages can face landslides during flooding.
The risk posed by natural disaster is assessed as high.

Social threats:
Protests can arise due to the current socio-economic conditions. This may lead to road blocking though lately this phenomenon is decreasing. Common delinquency is endemic and is becoming a social case too. Organized young gangs and drug criminal group, including immigrants trafficking, are largely affecting the population changing their social behavior and attitudes.

Road Conditions:
The road conditions are generally decent where the roads are paved. Some of the most dangerous stretches for road travel include: Tegucigalpa to Choluteca, because of dangerous mountain curves; El Progreso to La Ceiba, because of animal crossings and the poor condition of bridges from flooding; Route 39 through northern Olancho Department between Gualaco and San Esteban; and Limones to La Union, Olancho (route 41) via Salama and northward to Saba. Hondurans also refer to this latter stretch of road as the “Corridor of Death” because of frequent incidents of highway robbery.
Roads are generally unpaved and/or poorly maintained roads. The traffic in the Capital is totally unregulated and the few traffic police hardly manage it.
The threat of being involved in a car accident is high.

MEDICAL CARE AVAILABLE
Medical care in Honduras varies greatly in quality and availability. Outside Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula, medical care is inadequate to address complex situations. Support staff facilities and necessary equipment and supplies are not up to international standards anywhere in Honduras. Facilities for advanced surgical procedures are not available. Wide areas of the country do not have a general surgery hospital. Ambulance services are limited in major cities and almost non-existent elsewhere.
The risk of not receiving adequate medical cares is assessed as medium.

CONCLUSION
Honduras is a great country. The high level of crime and the drug related activities unfortunately affect dramatically the everyday life of citizens, visitors and tourists. There is a general lack of trust in the law enforcement agencies as well as in the political and judicial authorities. Impunity is a major unresolved problem in the country.
I will deepen several aspects of the above analysis in my next posts as well as I will mention about interesting field locations.

Navigating the lagoon facing Gracias a Dios (Caribbean Sea)

Vehicle stock in the mud in the proximity of Puerto Lempira

Nicaragua, Rio Coco navigation conditions during food transportation op.

In this brief post I would like to share this interesting video prepared by UN World Food Programme (WFP) in Nicaragua to promote their humanitarian activities.
I was in Nicaragua (post dated Sept. 2nd 2009) in February 2008, conducting a Security Risk Assessment for WFP. Part of my job was assessing the navigation conditions, providing recommendations according with the Minimum Operating Standard Security (MOSS) adopted generally by the UN. The difficult part was connected with the applicability of the MOSS to rented vessels, not UN property. I could not force the owners of the boats to buy and install all the prescribed safety features (fire extinguishers, GPS, life vests, HF radio etc). Yes one could argue that the Organization could choose a different provider with better equipped vessels. Well, in these areas often there is only one provider, the boats are very basic and navigation can be dangerous. The high quantity of floating debris is another element to be considered while planning the operation. Said that, the staff adopt a security posture and bring own equipment (where possible) in order to mitigate the risk.
In this video the boat (Hercules) has been purchased by WFP and it was properly equipped. It seems to be too heavy and large to be able to reach the remote areas in the Rio Coco region, while it could be useful in the sea or segments of river wide and deep. Hercules have been replaced eventually with smaller and more efficient boats. These new boats comply with the safety rules. During emergencies, by the way, it could be possible that rented vessels can be used due to the dimension of the operation.
Very interesting the food cross loading operation. The community who is helping transporting the food from one point to another of the river is not the final beneficiary. Communities help themselves.
My navigation experience on Rio Coco, one entire day, was conducted on board of a rented smaller boat maneuvered by two very skilled local operators. The food delivery was successful. I am sure my visit helped to increase the navigation safety and security awareness among staff and local boat providers and I believe better safety features have been then adopted.

Panama - Security concerns related to Canal ops and Darien Province

I conducted my RSA in Panama in March 2009 in Panama City and surrounding areas.
Panama has a developing economy. Outside the Panama City area, which has many first-class hotels and restaurants, tourist facilities vary in quality. The U.S. dollar is the paper currency of Panama, and is also referred to as the Panama balboa. Panama mints its own coinage.
The current security situation in Panama presents no indications that social unrest will rise to a level that would affect its economy. Nevertheless it is advisable to monitor constantly the general security conditions in order to assess any sign that of possible instability/threat to the actual tranquil situation, as outlined below.
All areas of the country outside of the capital are considered low risk with the exception of the southern province of Darien. Darien should not be considered a high risk area but must be kept under control due to the remoteness of the area, the lack of infrastructure and communications, and the sporadic incursion into the area of illegal armed groups from neighboring Colombia. A natural forest covers the border between Colombia and Panama and there are no entry access points between the countries.

Safety and Security – Darien Province:
This area encompasses the Darien National Park as well as privately owned nature reserves and tourist resorts. It has been reported by the local law enforcement agencies that foreign nationals and Panamanian citizens have been the victims of violent crime, kidnapping and murder in this general area. Reliable communications and medical infrastructure are not readily available in the region, which makes travel therein potentially hazardous. Moreover, all around the Panama-Colombia border area the presence of Colombian terrorist groups, drug traffickers and other criminals is common, increasing the danger to travelers. There is increasing evidence that the Revolutionary Armed Forced of Colombia (FARC), a designated foreign terrorist organization, has increased its operations in Panama’s Darien Province, including in areas far removed from the immediate vicinity of Panamanian-Colombian border. UNDSS advises that the risk of UN Staff members facing dangerous situations due to the sporadic presence of illegal armed groups from Colombia can be defined as “low”. The lack of an established communication system across the region can be mitigated through satellite phones.

SECURITY SITUATION - THREAT ANALYSIS
Economic:
Panama has an economy that has been shaped around the US Dollar. It is efficient and it is based on a number of well established business and commercial activities related mostly with the service sector. This large economic sector represents the 75% of the total GDP and includes the management of the Panama Canal, banking, the Colon free trade zone, insurance, container ports, flagship registry and tourism.
The unemployment level is about 8% and reflects the large oversupply of unskilled labor.
The factor that must be taken seriously into consideration in this analysis is the enormous disparity in the distribution of wealth. In fact 35% of the population lives in poverty and could trigger a higher level of crime and social unrest.

Natural Disaster:
The typical natural disaster which affect the Central America and Caribbean region, earthquakes, flooding and hurricanes do not have a significant impact on Panama.

Social:
Some ethnic groups in Panama can be identified as disadvantaged to others. This phenomenon does not express itself through violence acts or civil disobedience. There is a very high degree of religious tolerance between religious groups.

Crime:
Crime in Panama City is moderate but increasing, particularly because of the activities of youth gangs. The city of Colon is a high crime area. Police checkpoints have become commonplace on weekends on roads in both cities. Based upon reported incidents by local police, the high-crime areas around Panama City are San Miguelito, Rio Abajo, El Chorrillo, Ancon, Curundu, Veracruz Beach, Panama Viejo, and the Madden Dam overlook. Crimes there are typical of those that plague metropolitan areas and range from rapes to armed robberies, muggings, purse-snatchings, "express kidnappings" from ATM banking facilities, in which the victim is briefly kidnapped and robbed after withdrawing cash from an ATM, and petty theft. There have been several targeted kidnappings, including in Panama City.
Several Security Advisors mention that in Panama does not exist the so called organized crime, as the dramatic phenomenon affecting other countries of the region (El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, etc). Neither exist Panamian drug cartels. An interesting trend that should be closely monitored is that of the juvenile gangs. It is growing but cannot be compared with most famous criminal gangs “Maras” existing in Salvador or Guatemala.
The police are fighting local crime with the little means available and the scarceness of resources allocated to internal security. The number of police patrols are insufficient above all in the Canal area, which is a vital asset for the country and yet vulnerable.
The official crime statistics released for the year 2008 report that the number of homicides was 27% higher than 2007 and 49% higher than 2004. The robberies increased 43% in one year.
Panama is used by the Colombian drug traffickers as a land corridor to smuggle cocaine towards the Mexican-US border. This situation brought to Panama some money laundering center intended to clean narcotic revenue.

Police – Security Forces:
Panama does not have its own Army, Navy and Air Force. Law enforcement and the control of public order is the responsibility of the Panamian National Police (PNP). The PNP are the subject of frequent allegations of corruption. PNP is limited by a chronic lack of resources.

Panama Canal:
The canal area can be considered vulnerable. In fact an attack could be carried out through a ship carrying huge quantity of toxic chemicals or other dangerous materials. If the vessel would explode while crossing the Canal, either due to a terrorist attack or an accident, the consequences are difficult to predict.

Author visiting the Miraflores Lock at Panama Canal


OBSERVATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Although there are currently no indications that social unrest will rise, it is necessary to monitor the following potentially dangerous situations which could, under specific conditions, influence economy and life in Panama.
· Increased incidence of illegal demonstrations.
· Growing incidence of clashes between social and ethnic organizations of government security forces
· Increasing unrest in the provinces, especially in the Darien, has been observed.

MEDICAL CARE AVAILABLE AND CASEVAC PLAN
Although Panama City has some very good hospitals and clinics, medical facilities outside of the capital are limited. When making a decision regarding health insurance, Americans should consider that many foreign doctors and hospitals require payment in cash prior to providing service.

CONCLUSION
The security situation in Panama is generally good but several factors can potentially affect stability and security. The Darien Province is the most concern area in the country. Police should increase the number of its members and improve its specialized unit dealing with drug trafficking and smuggling across the border with Colombia.
Money laundering is another factor that has to be assessed in depth since it seems that part of the hidden economy circulating in Panama City is coming from illicit activities abroad.
The Canal security is finally the strategic key to the success of the Panamian financial system. The Canal brings to the State economy between 5 and 10M USD per day. An attack on the Canal could affect not only internal but the international stability and repercussion on global economy could be dramatic.

Puerto Cabezas (Nicaragua). Challenging security conditions.

After a pause due to family reasons, here I am again describing one of most challenging field location evaluated in Nicaragua, Puerto Cabezas (including the attached area of Bilwi). This post mentions my navigation experience intended to assess security conditions of crew, staff and assets transported by boat.
In fact, the great majority of every day Organization's activities took place by boat (Rio Coco and Caribbean Sea). The article focuses as well about the importance of satellite phones as one of the most reliable - thus not totally secure - communication means.

Puerto Cabezas is a small port area located on the north east Atlantic / Caribbean coastline, at about 560 km northeast of Managua. There are approximately 27,000 inhabitants of Bilwi. In the municipality of Puerto Cabezas there are 51 Miskito (indigenous) communities which combine with Bilwi's population for a total of 51,000 inhabitants. The city is surrounded by several rivers and lagoons. The official languages of the region are Spanish, Miskitu, Sumo, and English. Spanish is predominately spoken however there is a very large segment of the population who speak Miskito. In all communities, Miskito is by far the predominant language. During the two days trip spent in the Puerto Cabezas area, one entire day has been dedicated to the river route along Coco River. This mission has been conducted to assess the condition of navigation and the quality of boats rented by the Organization. The itinerary travelled was Waspam – Sih Ba by boat (8 hour navigation time). In the above picture, Rio Coco and local communities.

Author visiting the Sih Ba Miskito community, reachable only by boat



The threat:
The main threat in the region is related to the moderate concentration of common criminals while the Mara (gangs) phenomenon is less evident in Puerto Cabezas than in the inner areas. The operations conducted by boat present a high risk due to the river conditions and the large quantity of obstacles and debris floating in the river.
The threat level in and around the Puerto Cabezas is assessed as follows:

Road Safety:
The conditions of the roads to reach the communities around the Puerto Cabezas town, up to Waspan (along Coco River) and in the inner region are very poor, not paved but kept in decent conditions. Due to the scarcity of vehicles, the risk of accidents by road travel is assessed as low.

Communications:
Communications in such complex geographical environment are essential. The four means of communications (MOSS compliant) that must be installed and functional are:

• VHF radio set
• HF radio set
• cellular phone (ideally with different SIM cards in order to maximize the use of the coverage)
• satellite phone

In this particular case a fifth communication means was deemed necessary in order to coordinate field work with local communities and improve the emergency respond. In fact, the great majority of the Miskito communities, assisted by the Organization, were using an HF “radio amateur” set which was working with different frequencies. In this case it would be useful to have a proper radio or, infringing the internal rules and agreement with government which assigned to the Organization dedicated frequencies (not recommended), change frequencies on the HF Codan radio apparatus supplied. Such measure can be considered as “preventive” since can be implemented in case of emergency to share security information gained on the ground.

SAT telephones:
There are several models of sat phones available with different features but some older models, even if technically better built, cannot be suitable for the complex environment like the one analyzed here.
In particular the sat phone evaluated in this office location was a Nera model. The Nera sat phone functions well in some circumstances (mainly as a static fixed point communicator). There are however several significant operational problems with its use in the field. It is of the type with a “laptop” type antenna which requires to be pointed directly at the satellite it is trying to communicate with. Any deviation from this line of contact will terminate the communications. This makes it difficult to use on the move. The system is not quick or easy to set up and would be difficult to use in an emergency. The system is not discreet and has caused problems in the past when used in front of naturally suspicious rebels or armed groups at checkpoints. In some cases the groups do not know what it is and this can lead to increased tension. I indeed recommend:
· the use of satellite phone system with a hand held satellite phone for the reasons outlined above. Iridium now has such a product available.
· Every field location should have at least a ready-to-use sat phone handy (SIM card must be placed properly, contract should not be expired, sat must be charged and charger (home/car adaptor) should be always carried with the phone.
· Phones must be transported in proper water-proof bags suitable for boat operations and emergencies.

In the next post I will write about security while operating boats. Puerto Cabezas (Nicaragua) along with Quidbo (Colombia) and Puerto Lempira (Honduras) are all locations which I assessed and currently use boats to carry out their daily duties. So that it is important to understand the security rules and the technical features of the vessels prior any navigation.

NERA Satellite phone with lap top style anntenna. Not recommended for at-risk environment.

Iridium 9555, very efficient sat phone and descreet desing.

Nicaragua, general security situation and (brief) threat analysis

I conducted the security risk assessment in Nicaragua in February 2008. I inspected the Country Office in Managua as well as all field offices and logistic facilities of a worldwide International Organization (Corinto, Puerto Cabezas, Ocotal, Matagalpa, Siuna). A one day boat trip along the Coco River (Waspam) has been conducted in order to verify the navigation security conditions of staff during implementation of field operations in the Northern areas of the country.
The picture shows (me next to) a gigantic Govt propaganda poster of President Daniel Ortega praising his Populist/Socialist political message in favour of the masses.
Nicaragua, as seen in its regional context, is one of the less dangerous countries compared with its neighbours El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala. Police coverage is extremely sparse outside of major urban areas, particularly in Nicaragua’s Atlantic coast. Sporadic incidents of highway banditry happen frequently in remote rural areas of north and northwest Nicaragua. In order to reduce the threat of being involved in such criminal event it is recommendable to travel between 6.00 AM and 6.00 PM. Political demonstrations and strikes occur sporadically, are usually limited to urban areas, and occasionally become violent. In the Puerto Cabezas area recently a public protest against local government (Alcaldia) took place. Stones have been launched but the police was able to keep the protest under control.Regarding major organized criminal activities it should be noted that narcotics traffickers often use the Caribbean and Pacific coastal waters. The new luxury houses located in very isolated places show that there is an increment of drug traffic between Colombia and Mexico/US affecting those countries in between.Assaults and armed attacks have been registered in isolated areas, mainly along the route Managua – Puerto Cabezas where overcrowded buses are stopped and travellers robbed.
THREAT ANALYSIS
The greatest area of concern of the internal security is related with several illicit activities conducted by both common and organized criminality. Violent crime in Managua and other cities is increasing, and street crimes are frequent. Pick pocketing and occasional armed robberies occur on crowded buses, at bus stops and in open markets, particularly the large Mercado Oriental, and less frequently at the Huembes market. Gang activity is rising in Managua, though not at levels found in neighbouring Central American countries (El Salvador, Guatemala, etc). Gang violence, including robbery, assault and stabbing, is most frequently encountered in poorer neighbourhoods, including the Ticabus area, but has occurred in the neighbourhoods surrounding major hotels, bus terminals and open-air markets.Street crime and petty theft are a common problem in Puerto Cabezas, along both the Nicaraguan Caribbean coast and route Managua – Puerto Cabezas. Lack of adequate police coverage has resulted in these areas being used by drug traffickers and other criminal elements. Taxi drivers and passengers have been victims of robbery, assault, sexual assault, and even murder. It is advisable, before taking a taxi, to be sure that the cab has a red license plate and that the number is clearly legible. The taxi must be properly labelled with the cooperative (company) name and logo. While riding in a vehicle, windows should be closed, car doors locked and valuables placed out of sight.Crimes of opportunity such as car theft, abduction and muggings are ever present. In essence, the high level of criminality has little or no authority and no recourse to Police action in the rural areas is a serious threat to all visitors to, and agencies in, Nicaragua. As mentioned above, almost in all towns (mainly in the centers) the legality and police enforcement have not been fully restored.
Force Majeure:
Hurricanes present a constant threat to Nicaragua during the rainy season which has seen a penetration within the Caribbean Coast in the Puerto Cabezas area. Nicaragua is subject to Earthquakes as well. The last quake in 1972 has partially destroyed Managua. Since the capital lies in the proximity of the S. Andrea fault the exposition at tremors and earthquakes is relevant.

In the next posts I will analyze some interesting aspects of the difficulties encountered by staff deployed in different field locations. Puerto Cabezas represents the most challenging field site for its exposure to hurricanes and its geographic complexity (located on the shores of Rio Coco, facing the Caribbean Sea).

Guatemala - Chapter 2. Overall threat, organized crime and natural disasters.

With this brief post I conclude my “Guatemala” security considerations. In the previous one I described how impunity and regular criminality affect dramatically security in the country. Here are some hints about the overall threats to the humanitarian organization I was in charge of, the organized crime and natural disasters (hurricanes and volcanoes).

The Threat:
There are currently no known specified threats against humanitarian staff and interests in Guatemala other than the general threats prevalent to all organizations and civilians in the country.
Crimes of opportunity such as car theft, abduction and muggings are ever present. In essence, the high level of criminality and little or no authority and no recourse to Police action in the rural areas is a serious threat to all visitors to, and agencies. As mentioned almost in all towns (mainly in the centers) the legality and police enforcement have not been fully restored.

Terrorist Action:
Currently there are no registered incidents of IED or VBED (Vehicle Borne Explosive Device) in Guatemala. However, the authorities have expressed concern and state that they have in the past monitored Muslim extremists travelling trough Guatemala. There are no officially identified terrorist groups by the Guatemalan Government, even though there are constant confrontation with groups such as the EXPAC (ex paramilitaries), which have in the past made their dissatisfaction known through violent means. Nonetheless the security system on site is constantly in touch with local authorities and the international community to ensure that there is an early warning system in place should the terrorist threat increase. However, the terrorist threat can be assessed as low in Guatemala.

Demonstration / political:
There is no obvious potential for politically motivated violence. The activities of the recent born International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG), mentioned in my previous article, backed by UN could increase the risk that international organizations could be targeted by organized crime. So far, the current threat of violent demonstration is assessed as low.

Road Accident:
Road travel in Guatemala is hazardous. Road conditions outside of town range from are generally good. The risk of a fatal accident appears to be high. The traffic is heavy in Guatemala City and the drivers have almost no discipline and respect of road regulations. Defensive driving techniques are a must for all drivers. The hazard presented by road travel is assessed as high.

Organized Criminal Activity:
This is the area of major concern in Guatemala. The Maras (youth gangs – see post dated August 16th) are of particular concern, since they are both involved with major drug operations, people smuggling syndicates and regional Mara turf wars. Additionally, they routinely control zones throughout the Capital, running extortion rackets, which include extensive involvement in the countries public transit system. As a result, it is highly recommended not to ride public buses or enter certain zones of Guatemala City and use only approved taxi companies suitable for official or personal travel. Lastly, organized crime groups have also been linked to kidnappings and “express kidnapping”, which take place frequently in Guatemala. Risk level is high.

Natural disasters/Force Majeur:
Hurricanes present a constant threat to Guatemala during the rainy season which has seen in 2005 (Hurricane Stan) approximately 2000 death. Weak government response, limited resources and a limited infrastructure all aggravate this problem. Guatemala is a geologically active country and earthquakes are also a constant concern, as well as flooding and regular power outages throughout the country. Guatemala has also 22 volcanoes, 4 of which are considered active. Volcanic activity, such as that of Fuego Volcano near Antigua in January 2003, and again in January 2006, has on occasion forced evacuations of nearby villages; the January-February 2000 activity of Pacaya Volcano near Guatemala City also briefly closed Guatemala City's international airport. The threat posed by the effects of an earthquake is assessed as high.
Map of Major Volcanoes in Guatemala. Courtesy: intute.ac.uk

OBSERVATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
· Crime is the biggest single threat to International Organizations in Guatemala. Sensible precautions can drastically reduce the probability of personnel becoming victims. Those most at risk are expatriates especially those recently arrived in country. Road traffic accidents are a serious problem. Sound vehicle maintenance and good driving practices will reduce the probability of accidents.
· Staff working in Guatemala City should keep the lowest profile possible while moving from/to the Capital. In this regard, it is recommendable to use magnetic logos for cars only for official missions or when it is strictly necessary in the field. This would reduce the visibility of the operators and mission and mitigate the risk.
Picture on top: Guatemalan Maras members arrested by special police - Courtesy: Noorlarnet.uoi.no

Guatemala: affected by violent crime and impunity. Is this a never ending tunnel?

I am writing this post from the Dubai Airport lounge while I am waiting for my connection flight to New York. Just concluded a three months security mission in Sri Lanka where I was in charge of the security of staff, assets and operations of in international organization in the North of the country. I will write soon a post about the challenging security situation in the island. In the meantime, I believe it would be logic continue with the Latin American “chapter” i.e. my security experience in Centro/Latin America in order to give more uniformity to the structure of this blog.
I conducted my RSA in Guatemala in February 2008, visited Guatemala City and the field office located in Jocotan/Los Amates. In that period an interesting debate around the best method (if ever any) to reduce/eliminate the impunity was taking place. Such discussion, both intellectual and political, was stimulated by creation of the International Commission against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG, its Spanish acronym). The United Nations in fact in December 2006 signed an agreement with the Guatemalan Government to set up an independent commission, to investigate illegal armed groups that have been operating in the Central American country with impunity and to help justice officials carry out criminal prosecutions against them. In February 2007, three Salvadoran parliamentarians and their driver were assassinated by senior members of the Guatemalan National Civilian Police, including the head of the organized crime unit. Four of those police officers were themselves subsequently killed while in a high security Guatemalan jail. The incident has demonstrated the extent to which illegal security organizations have infiltrated high levels of state institutions in Guatemala.
The Commission should be able to conduct its own investigations and also help local institutions, particularly the Office of the Public Prosecutor. According with the UN official press report “The Commission currently had about 20 ongoing investigations and had proceeded to criminal prosecution in four cases... One of those involved the massacre of 12 persons and related to the rivalry between organized groups; another case dealt with police corruption and concerned groups that kidnapped children”. Reality is that corruption and impunity are still dramatically affecting Guatemala and its neighbouring countries and the above Commission has noble intention but scarce power.

Author assessing flour mill security measures at Los Amates.

Violent criminal activity continues to be a problem in Guatemala, including murder, rape, and armed assaults against foreigners. The police force is inexperienced and under-funded, and the judicial system is weak, overworked, and inefficient. Well-armed criminals know there is little chance they will be caught or punished. Traditionally, Guatemala experiences increases in crime before and during the Christmas and Easter holiday seasons.
Large demonstrations occur throughout Guatemala, often with little or no notice, and can cause serious traffic disruptions. Although most demonstrations are peaceful, they can turn violent, and travellers should avoid areas where demonstrations are taking place. The use of roadblocks and/or blocking of public facilities, including the international airport, has increased and demonstrators may prevent tourists caught behind the blockades from leaving.

Poster relating human being trafficking with impunity.

In 2007 particularly virulent rumours of child stealing and of murder for organ harvesting have been reported in several different areas of Guatemala frequented by foreigners. During my visit in the country numerous Guatemalan citizens have been lynched for suspicion of child stealing, and three local women who allegedly facilitated foreign adoptions were attacked by a mob that accused them of kidnapping and killing a girl whose mutilated remains were found near Camotan, Chiquimula (near the Honduran border on the main road leading to the Copan Mayan ruins). In reaction to unconfirmed reports of babies being kidnapped in the El Golfete area of the Rio Dulce (near Livingston, Izabal), residents of small villages in the area remain mobilized and suspicious of all outsiders, including foreigners. I passed by there areas. Talking with the people I perceived an overall distress and a total lack of confidence in the Police and the institutions in general. In Sayaxche, Petén, child stealing rumours escalated into mob action against a Guatemalan couple believed to be involved in child stealing. Mobs have also targeted police, resulting in delayed or ineffective responses by law enforcement.
Due to uncontrolled drug and alien smuggling, the Guatemalan border with Mexico is a relatively high-risk area, in particular in the northern Petén Department. The most dangerous area in that region is on the north-western border in the area that includes the Sierra de Lacandon and Laguna del Tigre National Parks.
My concern was/is that the staff, above all the expatriates, could be targeted to send a clear message to the international community as such and to the UN to stop the investigations of the Commission against Impunity. No attacks have taken place so far but this remains a valid warning since general security situation has not changed. Violent crime, however, is a serious concern due to endemic poverty, an abundance of weapons, a legacy of societal violence, and dysfunctional law enforcement and judicial systems.
The number of violent crimes officially reported has remained high in recent years. Incidents include, but are not limited to, assault, theft, armed robbery, carjacking, rape, kidnapping, and murder. Criminals often operate in groups of four or more and are confrontational and violent. Gangs are a growing concern in Guatemala City and rural Guatemala. Gang members are often well armed with sophisticated weaponry and they sometimes use massive amounts of force. Emboldened armed robbers have attacked vehicles on main roads in broad daylight. Travel on rural roads always increases the risk of a criminal roadblock or ambush. Widespread narcotics and alien smuggling activities can make remote areas especially dangerous. However, violent criminal activity on the highways continues, and foreigners, among others, have been targeted. Many of the robbery attempts have occurred in daylight hours on main highways. Carjacking incidents and highway robberies are often violent. Private vehicles, taxis and shuttle buses have been attacked. Typically, the assailants steal money, passports, and luggage. In some cases, assailants have been wearing full or partial police uniforms and have used vehicles that resemble police vehicles, indicating that some elements of the police might be involved. Travel after dark anywhere in Guatemala is extremely dangerous.
In conclusion, I would define as the most pernicious threats the virulent violent organized crime and the institutional failure to bring perpetrators of crimes to justice creating thus a denial attitude of the victims' right to justice and redress.
In the next post about Guatemala I will outline the external threat analysis, the organized criminal activities and the natural disaster risk (contingency plans) posed mainly by tropical hurricanes and volcanoes (22 out of which 4 active).

Photo on top: Courtesy totheroots.files.wordpress.com