Sunday, October 25, 2009

San Pedro de Sula (Honduras) – National economy catalyst in light of the actual political crisis

San Pedro is definitely the most important economic centre of Honduras. In San Pedro, dynamic town famous for its brilliant economy, few successful businessmen have reached an incredible powerful economic dimension. Such success has enable them to take part at the political debate as one of the most influential lobby.

Zelaya, the ousted President, at the beginning of his Presidential career was part of the “club” of industrials and businessmen loyal to the US influence in Central America. He received their blessing and political support. During the first part of his mandate he managed the country stimulating, reinvigorating and improving the existing trade relationship with the US. The US has a specific interest in the country which hosts the largest US military base in Central America (Palmerola). But something happened. A “new” destabilizing element took the upper hand and marked a dramatic shift in the management of the foreign affairs of Honduras. Chavez and his ALBA (left wing inspired organization of Bolivarian States) entangled the Honduran political arena intoxicating first the President Zelaya who dramatically changed his set of political priorities, goals and supporters. This element triggered the famous event that forced Zelaya to leave the country.
The political dynamics behind the scenes are not the main argument of this blog post. Nevertheless it is worth reminding the importance of San Pedro de Sula as main economic site in Honduras, house of lobbyists and ghost decision makers. Which role will be played by San Pedro economic elites before and during next Presidential election remain to be seen.
I visited San Pedro de Sula in April as part of the country Security Risk Assessment, before the political crisis took place. Here some findings regarding the level of criminality, the threats and the instability factors in the San Pedro urban area and in its region.

GENERAL SECURITY SITUATION

Cortes Department (San Pedro surroundings)
General Situation - Crime
The most potentially dangerous sites in terms of presence of criminality are located in the Sulasono Valley. Only few areas can be considered moderately dangerous: Omoa, San Antonio, Santa Cruz Yohoa and San Francisco.
The most frequent criminal acts are kidnappings, express kidnappings (the victim is released in few hours after he/she withdraw money from ATM machine), extortion, assaults and violence connected with narco traffic.
There are areas too dangerous to adventure through in the region, while it is possible/recommendable visit other municipalities only if in company of somebody known in the community or local officials.
Ironically any police escort could dramatically endanger the presence of the visitor.
The risk posed by crime in this area is assessed as high.

Organized Crime – Cortes
The crime rate is very high in this area.
People generally do not report criminal acts for two reasons: fear of retaliations from criminals and lack of trust in the law enforcement systems, both police and justice. Besides corrupted police could inform criminal about a report and trigger retaliation.
The risk posed by crime in this area is assessed as high.

Urban Department of San Pedro Sula
General Situation – Crime
Usually two different kind of criminal aspects are present here: crime due to social frictions and delinquency (ordinary and common).
Both are fueled by the media which emphasize the culture of fear among people. This situation stimulates the lack of confidence in the police as institution and creates a subculture of isolation (one is alone against crime). This phenomenon motivates people not to report incidents and crime related events.
Drug couriers move freely in the urban departments since San Pedro is part of the large drug corridor from Colombia to the Mexican/US border. Part of the drug shipments are used locally to pay salaries to those supporting their logistic operation.
The risk posed by crime in this area is assessed as high.

Organized crime – San Pedro Sula City
Large international organized groups of criminals are operating in town. The leaders are Colombian and Mexican. They are in charge of the transportation across Honduras of large quantity of drug. These groups use local gangs “Maras” to support and defend their activities. Several killers are recruited by drug cartels.
The Maras are used to distract police from other areas where the drug is transported.
Gangs indeed organize skirmishes or crime incidents in order to gather the police out of a different area where narco traficants are managing their operations.
The police and the judiciary system are very corrupted. The impunity reaches very high levels.
Money laundering is a widespread phenomenon as well. The great majority of the victims of homicides are connected with some criminal activities or groups. The price to execute somebody can be as low as $50.
Some peripheral areas of San Pedro represent an attraction for those populations living in other poorer regions. Those villages are the most perilous.
The risk posed by crime in this area is assessed as high.

Threat mitigations measures:
Best time frame to conduct field operation between 6:00 AM and 6:00 PM.
The Soaso area is considered at high crime risk. Nevertheless the escort of police is not recommended since can be clearly identified.
It has been reported that people has been killed in attempt to steel their cellular phone. For this reason the cellular is used only in not visible areas.
Finally, the good and appropriate personal behavioral conduct of the monitor is a further element to consider within the general mitigation measures.

Accidental Shooting:
The risk to be involved in an accidental shooting is low.

Medical Emergency:
In San Pedro are located several good medical facilities. In town are available ambulances, clinics and health centers providing basic services.
The fire fighters have an ambulance too.
The risk of not receiving adequate medical cares is assessed as low.

Fire
The risk of injury from fire is assessed as low.

Road Travel
The conditions of the roads in town are very good. The great majority of the urban roads are paved. The traffic can be chaotic. The risk of being involved in a car incident is assessed as low.

Recommendation:
Drivers should attend a 4x4 wheel drive course. Secondly, the defense/offense driving courses should be offered to drivers as advanced courses after completion of the 4x4.
Picture on top courtesy Wiki.



Author visiting a school in the surroundings of San Pedro. Field offices were located within School complex, offered by Ministry of Education.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Honduras, threat analysis just before the change of political leadership

I visited Honduras in March 2009, just before the change of political leadership in the country. New elections are expected in November. The U.S. won’t recognize a scheduled November election in Honduras without a resolution to the political crisis that began with a coup that ousted President Manuel Zelaya in June. On Sept. 27, the de facto government led by interim President Roberto Micheletti banned protests and suspended other civil rights for 45 days and denied entry to an Organization of American States delegation seeking to negotiate an end to the three-month standoff in the Central American nation.
The aim of this post is not to focus on the actual political impasse of the country but to provide a threat analysis prepared just before the crisis. I will closely follow the development of the situation from the pages of this blog providing elements and details regarding possible future new political scenarios and balance of power.

Safety and Security – overview:
The main concern remains the general crime situation which is endemic. Almost all subjects interviewed during this assessment have been involved in or has assisted to common crime actions (robberies, assaults, etc).

Crime:
The threat from common criminal elements is considered HIGH in certain areas; violent crime is a serious and growing problem, especially in zones of Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula, and to a less degree throughout the country. Pickpockets and purse -snatchers are prevalent in major cities, especially in parts of Comayagüela and the central market surroundings of Tegucigalpa. Movements after dark should be avoided. Highway, road and street robberies, carjacking and assault of pedestrians by armed thieves are still high. Roadblocks and demonstrations on the main highways have decreased. With a total of 3,855 murders in 2007 and a population of approximately 7.3 million people, Honduras has one of the world’s highest per capita murder rates. Two-man teams on medium-size motorcycles often target pedestrians for robbery. There have also been reports of armed robbers traveling in private cars targeting pedestrians on isolated streets.

Organized crime:
There are criminal organizations which are mainly devoted to the drug smuggling/transportation from the southern bordering country Nicaragua to El Salvador and Guatemala, towards the Mexican/US border. In the La Mosquitia area and along the Caribbean coast their activities are carried out with little obstacle posed by law enforcement agencies. Recently has been approved a law which considers the use of soldiers in support of police force. Still the general perception is that the Government has not done enough to reduce criminality and organized crime activities. Results of these activities are homicides, violent actions and revenges among criminal groups to control the drug traffic.
The “Maras” phenomenon, juvenile criminal gangs, is present and affecting peripheral locations. Often it is involved in the protection of drug trafficking routes along the Atlantic coast and in certain internal area.
The direct threat posed from the above described actions can be considered high.

Police – Security Forces:
The Honduran government conducts occasional joint police/military patrols in major cities in an effort to reduce crime. Problems with the judicial process include corruption and an acute shortage of trained personnel, equipment, staff, and financial resources. The Honduran law enforcement authorities' ability to prevent, respond to, and investigate criminal incidents and prosecute criminals remains limited. The Government of Honduras has a very limited presence in Northern Olancho, Colon and Gracias a Dios Departments, which are well known for lumber and narcotics smuggling and violence. While the support of the police to eventually escort official vehicles in at-risk areas is relatively easy to get in the field locations, in Tegucigalpa, due to a scarcity of policemen, it is difficult to obtain.

Natural Disaster:
The most common natural threat to Honduras is posed by frequent but slight earthquakes, mainly in the Southern and Central regions of the country. Hurricanes as well can be dangerous and harmful, producing flooding along the Caribbean coast, according with the season. The towns of Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula are particularly weak to flooding due to the lack of properly build infrastructure and a proper urban housing plan. Peripheral towns and villages can face landslides during flooding.
The risk posed by natural disaster is assessed as high.

Social threats:
Protests can arise due to the current socio-economic conditions. This may lead to road blocking though lately this phenomenon is decreasing. Common delinquency is endemic and is becoming a social case too. Organized young gangs and drug criminal group, including immigrants trafficking, are largely affecting the population changing their social behavior and attitudes.

Road Conditions:
The road conditions are generally decent where the roads are paved. Some of the most dangerous stretches for road travel include: Tegucigalpa to Choluteca, because of dangerous mountain curves; El Progreso to La Ceiba, because of animal crossings and the poor condition of bridges from flooding; Route 39 through northern Olancho Department between Gualaco and San Esteban; and Limones to La Union, Olancho (route 41) via Salama and northward to Saba. Hondurans also refer to this latter stretch of road as the “Corridor of Death” because of frequent incidents of highway robbery.
Roads are generally unpaved and/or poorly maintained roads. The traffic in the Capital is totally unregulated and the few traffic police hardly manage it.
The threat of being involved in a car accident is high.

MEDICAL CARE AVAILABLE
Medical care in Honduras varies greatly in quality and availability. Outside Tegucigalpa and San Pedro Sula, medical care is inadequate to address complex situations. Support staff facilities and necessary equipment and supplies are not up to international standards anywhere in Honduras. Facilities for advanced surgical procedures are not available. Wide areas of the country do not have a general surgery hospital. Ambulance services are limited in major cities and almost non-existent elsewhere.
The risk of not receiving adequate medical cares is assessed as medium.

CONCLUSION
Honduras is a great country. The high level of crime and the drug related activities unfortunately affect dramatically the everyday life of citizens, visitors and tourists. There is a general lack of trust in the law enforcement agencies as well as in the political and judicial authorities. Impunity is a major unresolved problem in the country.
I will deepen several aspects of the above analysis in my next posts as well as I will mention about interesting field locations.




Navigating the lagoon facing Gracias a Dios (Caribbean Sea)


Vehicle stock in the mud in the proximity of Puerto Lempira